Technical Analysis Terminology

Posted by Ahmad Hassam | Investing | Monday 10 August 2009 4:27 am
by Ahmad Hassam

Lets first define what Technical Analysis is. Technical Analysis is the study of historical and ongoing price data through charts, price patterns and chart indicators. Charts display price in time intervals using bars and candlesticks.

Technical Analysis is based on the following assumptions. The most important is that all available information is already impounded in the market prices of the currencies. The second assumption says that prices always move in trends or patterns. The third assumption says that history repeats itself meaning you can predict the future market by studying the past market prices.

We follow trends because experience has shown that once a trend is in motion, it is most likely to continue rather than reverse it. The more one studies chart patterns, the clearer it becomes that reading and interpreting chart patterns are more an art form than a skill.

Two charts are important in technical analysis. Bar charts and Candlesticks charts. Bar charts display price data in vertical lines that represents price action during a given time period. The tip at the bottom of a bar chart is the low for the period. The tip at the top is the high for the period. The open and close are represented by small horizontal dashes called tics. The tic to the left of the vertical line is the open. The tic to the right of the line is the close.

Candlestick charts are similar to bar charts. Like the bar charts, the top of the vertical line represent the high and the bottom of the vertical line represents the low. However, the price action between the open and the close is represented differently by the use of candlestick bodies. A shaded body represents a lower closing below a higher opening. A hollow body represents a higher closing above a lower opening.

The price action above and below the body is referred to as tails or wicks. A forex day trader may use any one of the 3, 5, 10, 15, 30, 60 and 180 minutes charts. A swing and position trader may use a daily, weekly or a monthly chart while doing technical analysis. These charts all use the Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) or the Eastern Standard Time (EST) depending on the software that your broker platform uses. But you can always adjust these times according to your local time.

While doing technical analysis, you need to understand markets patterns? You need to understand what are Uptrends? You should also know what downtrends are and what are sideway trends? Forex markets expand and retrace constantly. Currency prices may continue to expand for sometimes either upward or downward. It is the nature of the currency markets to surge then pause and retrace.

Trends make a series of peaks and troughs as they move. An uptrend consists of a series of ascending peaks and troughs. A downtrend consists of a series of descending peaks and troughs. A sidways trend consists of a series of horizontal peaks and troughs.

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Money Management in Currency Trading (Part III)

Posted by Ahmad Hassam | Investing | Thursday 6 August 2009 11:47 am
by Ahmad Hassam

Perhaps the best advice that you will receive in your trading career is live to trade another day. Currency markets are volatile, brutal and unforgiving. You should learn to survive in the markets.

The single most common factor that causes many traders to blow up their accounts is greed. When you get greedy, you start taking unnecessary risks. You will spend countless hours trying to discover the Holy Grail technical indictor or a forex robot that will make you rich. You believe that by discovering that secret of investing, you will become rich without losing a single trade.

Unfortunately there is no such Holy Grail for anyone. No one has ever found such a secret. You cannot always win. You will win and you will lose. Learn not to risk more than 2% of your account on one single trade. Grow your account incrementally and slowly over time. Never ever get into the temptation to risk big trying to make one single winning trade that can make you rich.

You should know how much you are willing to risk in a single trade. I said 2%. But if you want to be aggressive you can go up to 5% but stay between 2-5%. Dont exceed it. If you are conservative, on the other hand, you should consider risking between 1-2% only.

Once you have decided on the amount of risk you are willing to take, the rest is simple. Suppose you have a $50,000 account. You decide on a risk of 2% only. How much you can risk on a single trade? (50,000)(0.02)=$1,000. This is the maximum amount you should risk on a single trade.

However, if you are in more than one trade at the same time, the amount may be higher. Suppose, you are in 3 trades and you risk only $1,000 per trade. So the total amount at risk will be $3,000. Once you have determined your risk level, you are ready to determine the trade size.

Trade size is the number of contracts you purchase in any one single trade. You need to first determine where you want to put your stop loss in order to determine the trade size. Lets use a simple example to make it clear. Suppose you are willing to risk $1000 on trading EUR/USD pair and you decide on a stop loss of 50 pips. Each pip on EUR/USD pair is equal to $10. So the number of contracts that you can trade are 2= (1,000)/ (50) (10).

By calculating your trade size, you have taken the guesswork out of your trading once you have determined your risk level. You can sleep well now. You know how much of your money is at risk. You are going to be able to trade tomorrow. No matter what happens today.

Use these common money management rules and avoid the pitfall of losing almost all the money in your account. Learn to survive the markets and trade another day. This can help your trading take a quantum leap to the next level of profitability.

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Stock Indexes (Part II)

Posted by Ahmad Hassam | Stock market | Wednesday 5 August 2009 4:45 am
by Ahmad Hassam

The Nasdaq-100 is a modified capitalization weighted index. Modified cap weighting involves adjustments to the capitalizations of the various components of the Nasdaq-100 index. The NDX contract at the CBOE is based on Nasdaq-100 as is the MNX.

Russell 2000 is the well known benchmark for small capitalization sector. Several Russell Indexes have become benchmarks for specific areas of investment management. Frank Russell Company is one of the leading global investment consultants. It is also involved in performance measurement, analysis and investment management.

Russell 3000 Index as the name implies includes 3000 issues. These 3000 companies represent 98% of the investable US equities. The index is adjusted for certain factors such as cross holdings and the number of pairs in hands.

Russell 3000 is further split into subsets like Russell 1000 Index and it covers the top 1000 companies. It is about 92% of the value of the entire 3,000 stock index. The Russell 2000 Index is the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index. It represents about 8% of the value of Russell 3000.

From the business point of view, the Wall Street Journal is probably one of the most perfect business franchises. A franchise that is very hard to duplicate. The net worth of most of its readers is in seven figures. Dow Jones is the publisher of this journal.

Over the year, DJIA became an important business barometer. It grew to encompass 30 large industrial companies. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) comprising 12 smokestack companies made its debut in the year 1896.

The DJIA is still one of the worlds best known stock measures. The average is maintained by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. It consists of 30 largest and most liquid blue chip stocks in the US.

The DJIA unlike the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 or Russell 3000 Indexes is a price weighted average. Recently Microsoft and Intel were added to the DJIA. The highest price issues hold the most influence over the average.

A 1% move in a $100 IBM stock would have a greater impact than a 1% move in a $40 Wal-Mart stock. ETFs exit on many Dow Indexes like the DJIA, the Dow Jones Total Market Index, the Dow Jones Global Titan Index and various sector indexes.

Wilshire serves over 400 organizations in over 20 countries representing over $2 trillion in assets. Wilshire flagship index is the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index.

It represents the broadest index for the US equity markets. Over the years, it has increased to 6500 issues representing the increase in the number of companies in the US.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) database contains nearly 25,000 securities covering 50 countries. One of the advantages of MCSI and its foreign indexes is consistency. It calculates nearly 3,000 indexes daily and services a client base of over 1,200 worldwide.

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Knowing Major Stock Indexes (Part I)

Posted by Ahmad Hassam | Mutual funds | Tuesday 4 August 2009 3:46 am
by Ahmad Hassam

There are hundreds of ETFs and HOLDRS covering key industry benchmarks such as the various Standard & Poor Indexes, Russell Indexes and the Dow Jones Averages or other less well known narrow based sectors.

You should know the major indexes that are either key benchmarks or have ETFs tied to them. For example SPY tracks the Standard & Poors 500 Composite Index and is the largest of the ETFs.

Standard & Poor: Standard & Poor (S&P) is the financial services segment of the McGraw Hill companies and has been providing independent and objective financial information, analysis and research for nearly 140 years.

It is also the provider of equity indexes and these S&P indexes are also used as the basis for wide variety of financial instruments such as Index Funds, Futures, Options and ETFs. Investors around the globe use S&P Indexes for investment performance measurement.

S&P 500 Composite is one of the most popular indexes in the global financial markets. It is also used as a key benchmark for money manager performance. Hundreds of companies around the world have licenses with the Standards & Poors for their index products. The influence and name recognition of S&P 500 is unparalleled.

The S&P 500 is a capitalization weighted index that tracks the performance of 500 large capitalization issues and each year thousands of money managers have the single minded goal of outperforming the S&P 500. S&P 500 represents more than 75% of the capitalization of the entire US Stock Market.

30 years back most of the stocks in S&P 500 were from the Industrial Sector. By 1970s, six of the top companies were from the Oil Sector. Over the years, the complexion of S&P 500 has changed. In 2000s, technology composed about one third of the capitalization of the index. The stocks in the S&P 500 are determined by a nine member committee in accordance with the general guidelines.

The other Standard & Poors indexes are the S&P Midcap 400 Index and it is based on 400 chosen domestic stocks. It is also capitalization based and measures the performance of the midsize companies of the US economy.

The S&P SmallCap 600 Index consists of 600 domestic stocks. These stocks are chosen for market size and liquidity. S&P SmallCap 600 is also capitalization weighted index and is of interest to institutional and retail investors. There are also sub-indexes based on these S&P Indexes.

NASDAQ: You will often hear the Nasdaq market being up or down on a given day in the media. NASDAQ Composite Index contains more than 4500+ companies representing a market capitalization of trillions of dollars.

There is another Nasdaq Index called the Nasdaq-100. It is composed of the top 100 nonfinancial companies in the Nasdaq Stock Market. The QQQ is based on the Nasdaq-100 Index. NASDAQ-100 is a modified capitalization weighted index.

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The US Mortgage Market Today: How Are We Doing?

Posted by Graham McKenzie | Real estate | Monday 3 August 2009 4:18 am
by Graham McKenzie

The prevailing Economic recession is not new to everyone and the United States is currently facing a hard financial time, with its real estate markets tumbling down with no sight of hope. People started to lose their homes all over the US, when the market initially started to tumble down. The manpower of the bank utilised in order to process mortgages were wasted because of the pre closure of mortgaged properties and the banks were flooded with closures already. Investors and banks started to purchase the houses which were auctioned at such low prices.

Initially, money was tight. Lenders, gun-shy from the recent spate of defaults, were reluctant to lend money to anyone who couldn’t prove their solvency with large down payments, documented assets, and demonstrably stable and substantial incomes. But the government’s guarantees gave the lenders courage, loans thus became easier to obtain, and so the banks were able to list their foreclosed properties with real estate brokers and, ultimately, found buyers.

Now, thanks to timely government backing, lenders are able to offer some of the best-looking mortgage packages we’ve seen in decades. Low- or no down payment loans are available, at amazingly low interest rates. Properties reacquired by banks desperate to recoup their foreclosure losses are on offer at fire-sale prices, promising instant equity to buyers who are able to act now.

As loans become easier to obtain, real estate investors can buy from realtors through the MLS, actually walking through the properties instead of buying at auction, often sight unseen. This makes the transaction more comfortable for investors, and, since the banks are still eager to sell, whether at auction or through the MLS, prices remain very attractive.

As far as the Mortgage market is concerned, it is hoped to be back again, in fact to its way to top in the next two years. Very high profits are expected for people who have been lucky enough to buy properties in such low cost with low interest rates during this recession time.

Things are still indigestible all over, riffraff are still trailing jobs and many homes are being sited on the mart cornerstone but there are options to meliorate crowd from behind their homes and the qualification has bounteous the trial it takes to yield a sliver lay on in these case. If at all perhaps refinancing is the primo way to get urge in goods, for those who are struggling with a rose-colored dinero merited to horsepower give or ruffled appraise can see a thundering inadequacy in their reason to breathing in the lean-to with refinancing to the drop tariff that are now untaken.

Because of this, money lending market has again seen its rise with lenders ready to extend attractive loan packages again and because of the Governments help, banks now see a reduction in the pre closure of mortgages, which brings a sigh of relief to people, as they have started to feel more optimistic about the real estate future and are ready to start buying properties again. Making huge profits in the real estate industry seems easy now.

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