Weekend Investment Reading – Trading Range

As a trader, the market action these days are amazingly good. Buy when it goes down, sell when it goes high. Rinse and repeat. As an investor though, the moves must be driving you nuts. The Dow has been stuck in this range for about a month now, and it’s hard to say whether the bulls or the bears will win this tug of war.

On the bull’s side, it’s still the same arguments that recovery is well under way. That it’s never as bad as everyone thought it will be and there are tremendous amounts of cash on the sidelines waiting to be invested.

The bears argue that while the downturn is slowing its pace and shows signs of stabilizing, we are far from a recovery that the rally suggests. They believe that the foreclosure wave is still yet to come and when the fed runs out of gas with all the stimulus, the economy, and thus the stock market, will tumble.

Articles for the Weekend

Carnival


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Case Shiller Home Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price (or just Case Shiller Home Price for short) indices were named after Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller when they began research on a methodology to measure housing prices. What they came up with in the 1980s is still regarded as the most accurate way to measure this asset classes, and the data is the most trusted source in measuring the health of the housing sector today.

The Different Case Shiller Home Price Indicies and the Timing of the Release

The home price index consists of 23 indicies in total – 20 metropolitan regional indicies, two composite indicies and a nation index. These indicies, with the exception of the national index which is calculated quarterly, are measured and published monthly. More specifically, they are released by the Standards and Poor’s at 9am eastern time on the last Tuesday of every month.

The 20 Metropolitan Cities Measured

  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • San Diego, CA
  • San Francisco, CA
  • Denver, CO
  • Washington, DC
  • Miami, FL
  • Tampa, FL
  • Atlanta, GA
  • Chicago, IL
  • Boston, MA
  • Detroit, MI
  • Minneapolis, MN
  • Charlotte, NC
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • New York, NY
  • Cleveland, OH
  • Portland, OR
  • Dallas, TX
  • Seattle, WA

Methodology

At the heart of the calculations is the repeat sales pricing model. This methodology uses sales prices of each specific single family home as data points of the index. When a home is sold and then re-sold, the two prices are called a “sales pair” and the difference in prices are recorded. All these differences in sales pair pricing are then aggregated and calculated into the index.

Since the index is designed to only measure the movement of sales prices with the exact same property, sales pairs are assigned weights to take into account home improvements and other physical changes to the property. For example, if the difference in price of a particular sales pair is much higher than the others in the same community, less weight is given to it since the assumption is that there was a major home remodeling. Also, sales pairs having a short interval is given higher weights than ones having a longer interval because the chances of home improvements are smaller.

What this Means for Us

The Case Shiller home index is reported with a two month time lag (for example, March numbers are out at the end of May).  Therefore, the index is a lagging economic indicator and should be treated as such when factoring your thesis for the growth or decline of the housing market index.

Also, remember that real estate is very local biased.  What I mean is that even if the national index is dropping at record levels, the area where you live in can still see price increases.  Therefore, be very specific with these numbers and think carefully to see if it applies to the region of interest if you are using the index to buy property.


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Stock Market Holiday Schedule in 2009

Since the stock market is closed today, I figure it would be beneficial to list out the holiday schedule of the U.S. stock market in all of 2009 so there are no more confusion. In 2009, the stock market is closed on:

  • New Year’s Day – Jan 1
  • Martin Luther King, Jr. Day – Jan 19
  • Washington’s Birthday – Feb 16 (observed)
  • Good Friday – Apr 10
  • Memorial Day – May 25
  • Independence Day – Jul 3 (observed)
  • Labor Day – Sept 7
  • Thanksgiving Day – Nov 26
  • Christmas – Dec 25

There are also two more days where the stock market will be closed early so people can go home to enjoy time with the family.  That’s Friday, Nov 27 and Thursday, Dec 24.


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Forex Ambush 2.0 Review – Is Forex Ambush 2.0 Scam? Does It Work?

Posted by Ryan Walsh | Currencies | Saturday 30 May 2009 4:14 am
by Alen Walker

Is Forex Ambush 2.0 a great scam or a grand slam? This is a fair question considering the huge number of useless systems and softwares that have hit the market since the forex frenzy started.

In order to get a straight answer the main thing you should look is at Forex Ambush 2.0 performance, because if you are thinking about using this system I am sure that you -as I- expect only one thing: that it will make you money.

From a performance standpoint, Forex Ambush 2.0 creators make some claims that are nothing short of sensational. They claim they provide 100% accurate forex trading signal and they explain that this is possible thanks to the artificial intelligence technology behind their signals generating software.

Should you believe this just because they say so?

No, you should take a closer look at their website and carefully scrutinize all the data.

First, you should take a look at the statements of live accounts being traded with real money based on Forex Ambush 2.0 signals.

Second, you should examine the trading signals section, where you will be able to see the latest signals delivered by the system.

Third, you should take a look at the reviews you will find at the bottom of the Forex Ambush 2.0 website. This is important because these reviews are unmoderated, so any comment left there appears instantly, meaning they are genuine.

After going through all the “evidence”, you should be able to draw a conclusion. In my case, my conclusion was “maybe this guys are for real”.

Based on this conclusion and the fact that Forex Ambush 2.0 is backed by a standard 8 week money back guarantee, I joined the service about a month ago and I have yet to see the first bad trade based on the signals I receive from them.

Up to this day I have received 100% winning trading signals without a single losing trade. So, is Forex Ambush 2.0 scam or slam? I honestly think it is a grand slam and one of the very few forex trading systems that is truly delivering as advertised.

If you are the kind of trader that prefers not to rely completely on a software, yet you want to have the power of a reliable and consistent automated trading tool, I think Forex Ambush 2.0 is the answer.

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What is the Purpose in Understanding The Assessor’s Office

Posted by Valerie Faltas | Real estate | Saturday 30 May 2009 3:52 am
by Valerie Faltas

The easy answer to this question is: they are processing your assessment! Be nice!

Mistakes are often made since there is so much work and so many houses to value! Simply remember the Assessor’s Office is a mass assessment entity and they do not always have the time or the employees to make sure every single value is perfect. If there is a mistake|an error in your building information or a value that is higher than than what it should be, it is not intentional nor is it personal.

The Assessor’s Office personnel can make your life simple and can also make it frustrating. If you’re a pain to deal with, no one will want to help you, even if the error is the Assessors fault. The employees do not like being dealt with like people who are out to take advantage of you, since they arent. The personnel are unaffected by how much you pay in property taxes, or your records and values, so be calm. Quite frankly, most of them don’t care because their jobs are secure, so whether they help you or not they’re still getting paid. Be a person they want to help so that you can get the most of what they know and who they know. Remember, even if the person you are speaking with can’t help you, most likely they know the person who can and have influence with that individual.

When I worked for the Assessor I had doors slammed in my face, I had homeowners and business owners yell at me. I was also treated as if I had no understanding of the law or even appraisal and I was definitely not apt to assist those who dealt with me that way. It was my part ofjob to help them, to be the civil servant I was paid to be. After working for years in an environment where most of the homeowners resented my position and the job I did it was very taxing. Remember, the Assessor is a person and the employees of the Assessor are human beings and they are tired of being yelled at! They get that all day long every day and most of the employees work there for years.

Imagine what its like to be in a working environment for years where most people you deal with hate you! Its not fun! Dont be one more they add to that list! The staff you deal with who work for the Assessor, influence your property tax value and records, always remember that! Most of them have worked with thousands of taxpayers and can read you like a book, so be kind and patient and understand they are not out to get you. The staff of the Assessor’s Office, are simply doing their jobs. Being angry and patronizing will not get you the result you are looking for. You may be surprised at what being kind and patient will get you.

About the Author: Valerie Faltas, Property Tax Expert worked in assessments for years, is a Certified Property Tax Appraiser, Licensed Residential Appraiser and a member of the International Association of Assessment Officers. As a real estate investor and advisor she is well versed in all aspects of real estate. To contact Valerie Faltas go to her website: www.propertytaxlittleblackbook.com

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