by Jason Cline
We see a new automated forex trading system almost every week now, it seems to me. They all produce profitable results in theory but when users start live testing the story can be very different, as most of us know from bitter experience.
So why do the dreams crumble to dust? Is it due to the user and their settings? Did the developer advertise fake results? Or is there some obscure cosmic law that dictates that as soon as a forex trading system is automated, the market will turn around to stop it working?
Sounds crazy I know but but sometimes I have wondered and you too maybe.
But really I don’t think it is because of any of those reasons. Maybe I will be hammered for this but here’s what I think really happens …
The way a forex robot tends to come into being is this: a trader or traders take a system that has been working for them (or invent a new one and backtest it), pay a programmer to turn it into a robot, and then to recover the cost of the software and more besides, they sell it to you and me.
The critical question comes in the very first step. If the system has been working for the expert for a reasonable time, no problem. But most times they move much too quickly. They are relying more or less on backtests. They know that people will buy a new robot, so they will easily cover their investment cost on the automation, so there is in fact practically no risk in them giving it to a programmer as soon as they dream up something that backtests pretty well. They do not wait for live testing.
So they go ahead and create a new forex currency trading system. Then of course they need to market it. They might do a small amount of live testing, but that’s risky! What if it made a loss? They won’t want to lie about the results so maybe it would be better not to test it on the live market, but release it immediately. People tend to believe what they read and many of them will buy on the basis of backtesting alone. Quick! the expert thinks, Let’s get it out there now while it still looks like it works!
So what’s wrong with backtests? Nothing, if you believe that its results in the future will be the same as its results in the past. But hey, isn’t that the first thing you see in the disclaimer on all investment documents? “Past results are not a guarantee of future performance …”
Take this simple example. You know that the odds of winning on black in roulette are less than 50%, right? The zero makes it less. I think it is around 48.5%. But distribution patterns mean that if you looked at a couple of hundred spins you would probably not get exactly that many blacks. You might have 51% black for example.
So imagine if you did that, looked at the results and said, Wow, 51% black in backtests! Excellent, so now I can develop a robot that always bets on black …
It would be sure to lose in the long term.
It is true that the foreign exchange market is a little more complex than a roulette wheel, but still I think that is fundamentally what developers are doing if they build a forex automated trading system based on backtests. And I think that is why they often do not work.
I’m not saying don’t use robots, not at all. An automatic forex trading system can be a wonderful tool.
I’m just suggesting that you should look carefully at how they have been tested. Do not rush to grab the latest robot the minute it comes out. Wait a couple of months, watch the online forums and see how other traders like you get along with new forex trading systems before you thrust your money into the developer’s hot little hands.
About the Author:
Jason Cline writes on automated forex trading systems and the foreign exchange market for a number of internet sites. Click through to his opinion of the best seller FAP Turbo in his
FAP Turbo review.